In the world of politics, cooperation between Democrats and Republicans can sometimes seem like an elusive dream. However, in the final hours of budget negotiations on September 30, a rare moment of unity emerged, leading to the passage of a stopgap funding bill that averted a looming government shutdown. This unexpected agreement to fund the government until November 17, 2023, initially found support in the Republican-led House but also gained significant backing from Democratic members. The bill then smoothly sailed through the Senate with bipartisan support, eventually landing on President Joe Biden’s desk for his signature. This last-minute effort ensured the uninterrupted functioning of all federal government operations.
The Temporary Fix and Ongoing Uncertainty
“Legislators have only agreed on a temporary solution,” notes Kevin MacMillan, the head of state and federal government relations at U.S. Bank. “They remain a long way from agreement on long-term funding to carry the government through the entire fiscal year, which runs through September 2024.”
Government shutdowns have plagued the nation on several occasions when Congress failed to reach a budget agreement by set deadlines. While most shutdowns are short-lived, lasting mere hours or days, the past 30 years have witnessed three instances of prolonged government shutdowns.
“In today’s political environment, the risk of a government shutdown during the budget approval process remains a distinct possibility,” says MacMillan. “With Republicans holding a slender majority in the House and Democrats maintaining a slim majority in the Senate, the path to a long-term resolution remains narrow.”
The Current Budget Impasse: A Familiar Struggle
The recent budget impasse leading up to the October 1, 2023, deadline echoed a similar struggle that occurred earlier in the year. House Republicans initially resisted approving the U.S. Treasury Department’s ability to issue debt to cover the federal government’s bills. However, in a last-minute effort, President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy reached an agreement that secured approval in both the House and Senate, allowing the Treasury to continue issuing debt. This agreement included budget cuts for nondefense discretionary spending in 2024 and minimal increases for nondefense discretionary spending in 2025.
“The ongoing reliance on temporary funding measures increases the risk of an impasse that could result in a temporary shutdown later in the year,” warns MacMillan.
Yet, a conservative faction within House Republicans pressed for even more significant cuts in nondefense discretionary spending beyond what was agreed upon in the debt ceiling agreement. MacMillan remarks, “This small but vocal group of House members sees the budget process as an opportunity to object to further government funding and pursue other aspects of their political agenda.” Speaker McCarthy’s decision to present a stopgap spending measure, which garnered Democratic support, further complicated the situation. Following the approval of the temporary funding bill, conservative members threatened McCarthy’s leadership position, potentially complicating efforts to reach a final budget resolution.
The delicate balance of power in Congress further exacerbates the challenge. “Due to the narrow margins – a Republican majority in the House and a Democratic majority in the Senate – crafting legislation that can pass both chambers remains an arduous task,” adds MacMillan.
Historical Precedents of Federal Government Shutdowns
Federal government shutdowns have become a recurring issue over the past four decades, with at least ten instances of partial shutdowns. While the early shutdowns between 1980 and 1986 were brief, lasting only one day or a few days, the pattern changed since 1995, with three extended government shutdowns.
The possibility of an extended government shutdown later this year raises concerns. Multiple factors contribute to this risk, including the uncompromising stance of conservative House members, the fragile position of the House speaker, the reluctance of Democrats to collaborate with Republican House leadership, and the potential for presidential candidates to support budget cuts. These factors, among others, could hamper the ability of Democrats and Republicans to reach a final budget solution and avoid a shutdown.
Economic and Market Considerations
For investors, the most significant concern revolves around the prospect of an extended government shutdown. While past shutdowns have caused short-term hardships for furloughed employees, their long-term impact on the economy has typically been limited. Rob Haworth, Senior Investment Strategy Director at U.S. Bank, explains, “Even if there is a temporary decline in economic activity, it hasn’t been a major concern for investors.”
However, the appearance of dysfunction in the policymaking process may affect how bond rating agencies assess U.S. government debt. On August 1, 2023, Fitch Ratings downgraded the U.S.’ Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating from AAA to AA+, citing “repeated debt-limit political standoffs and last-minute resolutions” as factors eroding confidence in fiscal management. Haworth notes, “It appears this downgrade was in anticipation of potential turmoil over the budget.” Moody’s has also issued a warning that a government shutdown could negatively impact the country’s credit rating. Nevertheless, Haworth maintains that, even if the U.S. government’s credit rating is downgraded, there are limited alternatives for investors seeking higher-quality debt securities than U.S. government debt.
Haworth’s analysis of the market response to the three longest government shutdowns over the past few decades reveals a surprising trend. In these instances of significant budget impasses and extended shutdowns, the markets demonstrated positive performance during the shutdown periods. This positive trend was observed even in the months leading up to the shutdowns. Haworth concludes, “A variety of issues impact the markets, even during stressful times like government shutdowns. But ultimately, investors focus on more critical fundamental factors, such as [other market factors] and market valuations.” Unless the shutdown directly affects these fundamentals, it’s challenging to anticipate a specific market reaction to such an event.
Staying Focused on Investment Strategy
Despite the headlines generated by political issues like the debt ceiling dispute and government budget impasses, investors must remain steadfast in pursuing their long-term investment objectives. It is crucial to periodically review your current portfolio to ensure that your assets align with your financial goals, considering your time horizon and risk tolerance.
In conclusion, the recent cooperation between Democrats and Republicans to avert a government shutdown is commendable, but the ongoing uncertainty in budget negotiations and the delicate balance of power in Congress pose significant challenges. While the impact of government shutdowns on the economy and markets is generally limited, the potential for extended disruption remains a concern for investors.